Reports

This assessment of the proposed Executive Budget identifies risks and concerns that underscore the importance of taking action to address the trajectory of State spending and improve the State’s structural imbalance, while continuing to bolster the State’s rainy day reserves. After several years of benefitting from extraordinary pandemic relief funding, the federal-state relationship may be changing in ways that could result in cuts to key State programs, especially in health and social services. The need to strengthen the State’s fiscal position has never been greater.

After two years of extraordinary volatility in State finances, the State Fiscal Year 2022-23 Enacted Budget Financial Plan projects fiscal stability for the next five years and includes plans to bolster rainy day reserves significantly. However, this report identifies several revenue, spending, and sustainability risks that could disrupt the Financial Plan that should be monitored closely.

In early 2021, New York City established a rainy-day fund, to better prepare for financial downturns. This report lays how the City can ensure resources are available when needed, by establishing a clear and written purpose for the funds, creating targets for how much should go into the fund each year and setting the conditions for withdrawals. The report also found the City’s reserve policies are not as robust as other large U.S. cities, and with recent changes in State and local law enabling the use of these funds, recommends the City define how these resources are accumulated and used.

The State Fiscal Year 2021-22 Enacted Budget Financial Plan reflects a remarkable improvement in the State’s financial condition, as New York and the nation have begun to recover from the devastating impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nevertheless, there are significant risks to the plan that can be managed if policymakers commit to further strengthening the State’s rainy day reserve funds; exercise discipline by using temporary federal resources for non-recurring obligations over the multi-year plan period; consider the long-term sustainability of major spending programs; closely monitor personal income tax collections and taxpayer behavior; and restore effective State debt management practices, including establishment of new and meaningful debt limitations and, if practicable, greater use of “pay-as-you-go” capital.

The national economy has now been growing for more than a decade – a lengthy expansion, by historical standards. While we have no way of knowing exactly when that will change, we can be sure that at some point a downturn will come. When that happens, the State must be prepared to safeguard essential services and avoid undesirable tax increases.

New York State ended State Fiscal Year (SFY) 2013-14 in its strongest financial condition since the Great Recession. Indications of the State’s improved fiscal footing included a $175 million deposit in the Rainy Day Fund, the first since 2008, and General Fund reserves of $2.2 billion, effectively the highest level since the end of SFY 2007-08.