The Economic Outlook: Extraordinary Uncertainty

Over the course of the national economic expansion from mid-2009 to February 2020, New York State’s job growth lagged the nation. In addition, employment trends were uneven across the State. While New York City experienced relatively robust job creation, most upstate regions saw more modest, if any, net employment gains.

Reported State Tax Collections Increased in State Fiscal Year (SFY) 2019-20

• In SFY 2019-20, reported New York State tax collections increased by 9.7 percent, reflecting factors including:
  • Taxpayer behavior in response to the federal Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) that went into effect on January 1, 2018, which reduced receipts in SFY 2018-19;
  • Continuing economic growth through most of SFY 2019-20; and
  • Enhanced collection of sales taxes on Internet purchases.
• The combined federal, State and local tax burden in New York

Employment Statewide Rose in 2019; Three Regions Lost Jobs

• In calendar year 2019, the State added over 100,000 jobs, an increase of 1.0 percent compared to national employment growth of 1.4 percent.
• New York ranked 20th among the states for job growth in 2019 and 15th for the five years ending in 2019.
• The State’s unemployment rate declined from 4.1 percent in 2018 to 4.0 percent in 2019.
• In 2019, the highest rate of employment growth was in education and health services, with an increase of 2.8 percent.

Created by the government, public authorities are legally separate entities that provide services to the public as well as to the State and local governments. Public authorities are generally self-supporting through their revenue-generating activities. However, in some cases, governmental financial assistance and support is provided for operating and other expenses. New Yorkers pay for public authorities in a variety of ways including rates, tolls, fees, and in some cases, taxes.

The debt burden of a governmental entity creates fixed costs that directly affect its ability to provide current services, as well as its long-term fiscal health. High borrowing levels may:

Real Property Taxes and Sales Taxes Are Major Local Revenue Sources

• Real property taxes remain the single largest source of local government revenue in the State, accounting for $35.7 billion, or 43 percent, of the $83 billion in total revenue from local fiscal years ending in 2018 (not including New York City).
• Fire districts are the most dependent class of local government on the property tax for revenue (which accounts for 93 percent of their total revenue), followed by school districts and towns (each at 54 percent), and villages (49 percent).
• State

• In academic year 2019-20, New York State public and private higher education institutions had the following students in degree-credit enrollments:
  • 846,281 full-time; and
  • 344,964 part-time.
• The State has a higher proportion of private college attendance than most states, with 195 independent and proprietary college campuses accounting for 44.5 percent of statewide full-time equivalent (FTE) enrollment.

New York State Ranks Highest in Nation in Per Pupil Spending

• For the 2017-18 school year,* New York State was the highest among the states in per pupil disbursements for current public elementary and secondary education at $24,040, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. New York’s per-pupil figure rose 4.1 percent from the previous year.