New York City increased its expectations for its surplus in fiscal year (FY) 2025 to $2.34 billion, largely as a result of stronger tax revenue projections and a reduction in the cost of providing services to asylum seekers, which will help balance its $116.9 billion FY 2026 budget. With escalating uncertainty in the federal funding environment — which could lead the State to make choices to balance its budget that pressure local government finances — preparation and transparency remain paramount to navigate the future.

This report examines the ways that funding received by local governments – from federal stimulus programs – as well as volatile annual state and local revenue sources – can impact local budgeting. The temporary nature of the federal stimulus funds in combination with state aid that has not kept pace with inflation, sales tax growth that has returned to lower pre-pandemic levels, and flat property tax revenue growth can put local governments closer to the edge of the fiscal cliff if not carefully managed.

This assessment of the proposed Executive Budget identifies risks and concerns that underscore the importance of taking action to address the trajectory of State spending and improve the State’s structural imbalance, while continuing to bolster the State’s rainy day reserves. After several years of benefitting from extraordinary pandemic relief funding, the federal-state relationship may be changing in ways that could result in cuts to key State programs, especially in health and social services. The need to strengthen the State’s fiscal position has never been greater.