The Economic Outlook: Uncertainty Remains

Looking ahead, numerous factors will continue to present risks to economic growth, and many forecasters continue to believe that a recession is more likely than not. These factors include persistent inflation, the effects of elevated interest rates due to Federal Reserve Bank actions, and global uncertainty. In New York, lagging employment and labor force recovery relative to the nation will heighten those risks.

State Tax Collections Declined in SFY 2022-23 from $121.1 Billion to $111.7 Billion

• In SFY 2022-23, reported New York State tax collections decreased by 7.8 percent, primarily reflecting the one-time homeowner’s property tax relief credit, and enhanced earned income and child tax credits.
  • Personal income tax (PIT) collections declined by 16.8 percent due, in part, to financial market volatility during 2022 which resulted in a 26 percent decline in securities industry bonuses as well as lower tax rates on the middle class effective January 1, 2023.
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Employment Still Below Pre- Pandemic Levels in 2022

• In calendar year 2022, the State gained over 443,000 jobs, an increase of 5 percent compared to growth nationally of 7.3 percent.
• Employment in the State was still 3 percent lower than that in 2019.
• The State’s unemployment rate fell from 7 percent in 2021 to 4.3 percent in 2022.
• The leisure and hospitality sector realized the largest job gains in 2022, 19.2 percent, but was still 10.4 percent below that in 2019.
• Employment in four industry sectors exceeded 2019 levels: information,

Public authorities are distinct legal entities that provide services to the public as well as to the State and local governments. New Yorkers pay for public authorities in a variety of ways including service charges, tolls, fees, and in some cases, taxes. Public authorities are generally self-supporting through their revenue-generating activities; however, in some cases, governmental financial assistance and support is provided for operating and other expenses.

The debt burden of a governmental entity creates fixed costs that directly affect its ability to provide current services, as well as its long-term fiscal health. High borrowing levels may:

Major Local Revenue Sources Remain in Strong Condition

• Real property tax revenues are the largest source of revenue for local governments. In local fiscal years ending (LFY) in 2021, property taxes accounted for $38.1 billion, or 42.1 percent, of total revenue ($90.5 billion) for local governments outside of New York City.
• School districts, towns, and villages received $23.9 billion, $4.4 billion, and $1.5 billion, respectively, in real property taxes, representing around half of the total revenue for each class.

Enrollment

• In academic year 2022-23, New York State public and private higher education institutions enrolled 777,838 full-time and 334,247 part-time students.
• Full-time equivalent (FTE) enrollment at public institutions decreased in 2022-23 by almost 17 percent compared to 2018-19 and by 19.5 percent compared to 2013- 14.

Significant Federal Aid Continues to Support New York Schools

• According to the Division of the Budget, schools received $4.6 billion of federal education aid in SFY 2022- 23. Schools also received $4.2 billion of temporary funding from COVID-19 assistance programs, including $2.2 billion from the American Rescue Plan Act, $1.8 billion from the Education Supplemental Appropriations Act, and $243 million from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act.

Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC)

• In SFY 2022-23, DEC All Funds spending totaled $1.5 billion, an increase of $135.3 million (10.1 percent) from SFY 2021-22, with local assistance spending growing 33 percent year-over-year.

Highway Conditions Improve Slightly for the Third Year in a Row

• The State is responsible for maintaining more than 42,700 lane miles of highway.
• Compared to the prior year, the number of highway lane miles rated poor to fair decreased by 2.6 percent in 2022.
• In 2022, 57.9 percent of the State’s highway lane miles were rated good to excellent, a 1.1 percentage increase since 2021.